Sun Belt football preview 2023: Is this the year for a New Years Six breakthrough?

Times are good for the Sun Belt right now. The conference’s decision to lean into local rivalries with expansion has been a big hit with fans, with multiple schools setting season-ticket records last year. The league got some of the highest marks among fans in our Group of 5 reader survey.

Sun Belt teams also beat Notre Dame, Nebraska and Texas A&M on the same day last season in perhaps the biggest day in league history. But can the league build on the good vibes to finally reach the mountaintop? In the nine years since the College Football Playoff was formed, the Sun Belt has yet to earn the New Year’s Six berth (the American has won it seven times).

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With a load of experienced and talented teams, this could be the Sun Belt’s best year yet, as long as those contenders don’t beat each other up too much.

Read all of our conference previews: ACC | American | Big Ten | Big 12 | American | Pac-12| MAC | Mountain West| SEC |

What’s new in the Sun Belt?

1. There are two new coaches, one at each end of the standings. Coastal Carolina hired NC State offensive coordinator Tim Beck after Jamey Chadwell left for Liberty, and Texas State replaced a fired Jake Spavital with Incarnate Word head coach GJ Kinne.

2. The power balance between the divisions has evened out. For years, the Sun Belt East Division carried the league, led by Appalachian State’s multiple conference titles, Coastal Carolina’s rise and Georgia Southern’s success. But the two best SBC teams last year came from the West in Troy and South Alabama. Along with a rising Southern Miss and a still-strong Louisiana, the West might be the stronger division now.

3. Three of the East Division’s best teams will have new starting quarterbacks. James Madison, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have new quarterbacks, and only Georgia Southern has a clear replacement lined up.

4. A path to the New Year’s Six might be more open than ever. With the American losing Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, this could be the Sun Belt’s best chance to reach a NY6 bowl if one team stands atop the rest.

New Sun Belt head coaches

Tier 1

South Alabama

The young Jaguars program broke out with a 10-3 record last season that nearly included a win at UCLA, making rapid progress under third-year head coach Kane Wommack. Nearly every key playmaker returns, including quarterback Carter Bradley (3,335 passing yards) and running back La’Damian Webb (1,067 rushing yards) and an elite defense. The nonconference schedule is tough with games at Tulane and Oklahoma State, but South Alabama is primed for Sun Belt contention again, and maybe even more.

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Troy

Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach was a dream. Troy’s active 11-game winning streak is the second-longest in the country, behind only Georgia. Several key players return on both sides, though the stout defense has a few more holes, including a new coordinator. The offense should be better while the defense takes a step back. Also: Six of those 11 consecutive wins came by one score. Will the Trojans have as much one-score fortune this time? They do get South Alabama at home on Nov. 2.

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Coastal Carolina

Three-time Sun Belt player of the year Grayson McCall battled injuries last year, and the Chanticleers’ 9-1 start ended with a three-game losing streak, including in the Sun Belt championship game. Chadwell (Liberty coach) and defensive end Josaiah Stewart (Michigan transfer) are gone, but McCall and a load of offensive playmakers are back for Beck’s first season as head coach. The biggest questions are how McCall fits in a new style of offense and whether the defense can rebound from last year’s late-season collapse, in which they allowed 48.3 points per game over the final three games.

Tier 2

Appalachian State

The Mountaineers beat Texas A&M and Troy but also lost to Texas State and Georgia Southern to finish 6-6 and miss a bowl for the first time since moving to the FBS in 2014. Head coach Shawn Clark made several big changes, bringing back longtime assistants Frank Ponce (offensive coordinator) and Scot Sloan (defensive coordinator). A new starting quarterback must emerge, but running back Nate Noel and a group of talented receivers provide some weapons. The defense must also get back into form.

James Madison

The Dukes stunned college football with an 8-3 record and a Sun Belt East Division crown in their first FBS season. But they were kept out of the conference title game and a bowl due to FCS transition ineligibility. That will remain the case in 2024 (unless there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams). The defense will be very good again, but replacing breakout quarterback Todd Centeio is the biggest offensive question.

Marshall

The Thundering Herd continue to progress under third-year head coach Charles Huff. The Notre Dame win last year was followed by a loss to Bowling Green to highlight an up-and-down 9-4 season. Cam Fancher emerged at quarterback late in the season, closing on a five-game winning streak, and running back Rasheen Ali is back. Last year’s defense was elite and should still be good again, even after losing defensive coordinator Lance Guidry.

Starting QBs, 2023 vs. 2022

Tier 3

Georgia Southern

Of all the “second-chance” head coaches hired last year, Clay Helton probably didn’t get enough credit for the job he did. Helton took over a three-win team, switched them from the triple-option to a pass-heavy attack, beat Nebraska and App State and reached a bowl game. Former quarterback Kyle Vantrease is gone after one 4,200-yard season, and in comes Tulsa transfer QB Davis Brin. Receiver Khaleb Hood could be one of the best in the Group of 5. But the defense needs a major upgrade, and Helton hired Brandon Bailey in the offseason to lead that side of the ball.

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Southern Miss

Will Hall has turned Southern Miss back into a respectable program despite basically no QB play in two years due to so many injuries there. Hall has loaded this team with Ole Miss and Mississippi State transfers for depth. Frank Gore Jr. is back as one of the best running backs in the country, and if he doesn’t have to throw passes this year, the Golden Eagles could take a big step forward. The defense was very good but has some holes to fill.

Louisiana

After four consecutive West Division titles, Louisiana took the expected step back after Billy Napier went to Florida and several star players transferred. The division got a lot tougher in 2022, and the Cajuns went 0-4 in one-score games. An improvement on last year’s 6-7 record is possible, but the division is probably out of reach.

Georgia State

The Panthers took an unexpected step back last year thanks to an 0-5 record in one-score games with a veteran group. Darren Grainger is a solid quarterback who leads a very strong running game. The defense has a lot of questions, however. This program has lost so many close games in recent years, with several blown leads. The Panthers have to figure out how to close.

Tier 4

Arkansas State

Butch Jones has basically attempted to rebuild this program from the studs. The Red Wolves have been one of the youngest teams in the country each of the last two years, and they’ve signed a top-two recruiting class in the conference in each year. But they have to show progress now. This program is used to winning championships but is 5-19 over the last two years. The quarterback battle is down to former Colorado/Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout or redshirt freshman Jaxon Dailey.

Old Dominion

ODU’s Sun Belt debut was a difficult 3-9 season, highlighted by a win against Virginia Tech. Then the top quarterback, running back and receiver transferred out, although there had been a QB battle in spring. Head coach Ricky Rahne turned to Fordham, bringing in offensive coordinator Kevin Decker and quarterback Grant Wilson to run the veer-and-shoot offense. There are some talented receivers here, but with a difficult schedule, it could be a long year if the new offense doesn’t click. Enjoy tackling machine Jason Henderson (186 last year).

Texas State

Texas State has yet to make a bowl game since its move to the FBS in 2012. Kinne has undertaken one of the biggest roster overhauls outside of Deion Sanders, with dozens of incoming transfers on top of an increased focus on Texas high school recruiting. That group of transfers includes four offensive linemen among several players from his previous stop at Incarnate Word. There will be growing pains, but the unique offense could spring an upset or two, and there is excitement around the program.

ULM

The Warhawks have seen numerous starters enter the transfer portal in the last few years, making it difficult for Terry Bowden and company to build and sustain something over consecutive 4-8 seasons. Nonconference games against Army, Texas A&M and Ole Miss make it hard to see a bowl bid in the cards.

Five-year performance and recruiting

(Key: “Sagarin rank” is the average national ranking in Jeff Sagarin’s all-Division I season ratings from 2018 to 2022, and “247 recruiting” is the average national ranking in the 247Sports Composite’s recruiting class rankings from 2019 to 2023. Winning percentages reflect the 2018-22 seasons.)

A coach breaks down the Sun Belt

“I think, talent-wise, we’ve surpassed the American as far as really good teams,” one Sun Belt assistant coach says.

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He might be right, but we’ll see this year. Troy and South Alabama should be the conference top two teams again, he said.

“I think Troy will be much improved on offense, but they lost two really good players on defense,” the coach said. “South Alabama’s quarterback is outstanding and they have a lot of good weapons offensively, play really good defense, too. … Southern Miss has a chance to be pretty good. ULL still has players there.”

As for the East Division, “I think the team to really watch out for is James Madison,” the coach said. “Watching their tape, they’re really good. Marshall is really good defensively, but I don’t know with Guidry gone. Grayson McCall is going to give Coastal a chance, he’s that special of a player. But that receiver 14 (Jared Brown) is a game-wrecker; he’s a dog.”

Safe prediction for the Sun Belt in 2023

The winner of the Troy-South Alabama game will win the conference.

Bold prediction for the Sun Belt in 2023

Southern Miss will win at least eight games.

Editor’s note: This is part of a series of State of the Conference previews of the 10 FBS conferences entering the 2023 season. Read the others here: Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC, AAC, Big 12.

(Photo: Bobby McDuffie / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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