Super Bowl 2023 odds and projections before NFL Week 13: Every teams playoff chances

Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.

In this week’s projections, the San Francisco 49ers are the new favorite to win the Super Bowl, taking the top spot from the Kansas City Chiefs. Elsewhere, the Buffalo Bills’ playoff chances got cut in half from 36.4 percent to 16.7 percent. At 6-6, Buffalo is one game behind the last playoff spot in the standings, is behind three teams and has a tough schedule the rest of the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) and Green Bay Packers (5-6) were big movers in the other direction. The Packers’ upset win in Detroit got them within half a game of the Minnesota Vikings, which took a big drop in its playoff chances.

Super Bowl Projections

xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projected chance to make the playoffs and Super Bowl is the chance for each team to win the Super Bowl.

xwins	playoffs	super bowl
12.4	99.8%	16.9%
12.4	99.5%	16.5%
13.7	100.0%	13.5%
11.9	99.5%	9.8%
11.9	98.2%	9.2%
11.9	98.9%	9.2%
12.1	99.1%	8.1%
11.6	98.8%	5.9%
10.6	85.9%	2.8%
10.2	77.2%	1.3%
8.8	53.6%	1.2%
9.6	48.6%	0.87%
8.6	16.7%	0.84%
8.2	52.7%	0.70%
8.2	50.7%	0.64%
8.2	54.7%	0.61%
8.2	42.0%	0.48%
9.2	46.5%	0.44%
8.9	21.1%	0.38%
7.8	25.3%	0.27%
7.0	19.8%	0.22%
7.4	6.4%	0.15%
6.9	0.8%	0.02%
6.7	0.4%	0.0%
6.2	0.4%	0.0%
6.1	2.2%	0.0%
6.0	0.3%	0.0%
5.5	0.1%	0.0%
5.3	0.9%	0.0%
4.0	0.0%	0.0%
3.6	0.0%	0.0%
2.9	0.0%	0.0%

(Photo of Deebo Samuel: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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